Dive Brief:
- The overall freight sector — including trucking, rail, pipeline, water and air — is expected to grow 3.3% annually until 2022 when it will reach $565 billion in revenue, up from $479 billion in 2017, according to a forecast by Freedonia Group, a summary of which was reviewed by Supply Chain Dive.
- Trucking is expected to still be the largest sector of freight with forecasted revenue of $383 billion in 2022.
- Pipeline is forecast to be the fastest growing segment of freight, with revenues expected to increase by 4.2% by 2022. This still places it behind trucking and rail in terms of total revenue.
Dive Insight:
This growth in the freight sector will be led by "ongoing economic growth," according to the report summary.
Ongoing trade conflicts have some worried about the current trajectory of the economy. IHS Markit expects the economy to continue growing in 2019 (at a rate of 3%) but at a slightly slower rate than in 2018 (3.2%).
A forecast by the Federal Reserve also expects slowed growth, reaching a predicted 1.8% growth by 2021, down from a forecasted 3% growth for 2018.
"Simmering trade conflicts are dangerous, not because they have done damage so far — they haven’t — but because they could easily escalate," IHS Markit Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh, said in a statement at the end of last year.
Freedonia Group doesn't seem as worried as others about the impact of tariffs heading into 2022, saying "tariffs will likely either be removed by then or become part of the status quo."
