Dive Brief:

• The Cass Freight Index's April 2017 figures found the trucking industry is steadily recovering from a 20-month recession, since October, 2016.
• Shipments were up 4% from April 2016, while expenditures grew 6% in the same period. Month-to-month, the two indices showed a 3.7% and 3.1% increase, respectively — notable growth considering March is considered a "seasonally strong" month.
• January 2017 marked the first month in the last 22 that expenditures grew. The high growth of expenditures in April signal that the past six months may be a material change in trend rather than a few months of better growth. "Not since 2011, when the economy was still climbing out of the recession, had this index been so low," Cass writes.

Dive Insight:

A historical view of the Cass Freight Index's shipment and expenditures figures reveal the two are cyclical in nature, but recent figures suggest the trucking industry's trough may be over ... and companies are spending accordingly.

Cass reminds readers that "volume leads growth," so the high growth in expenditures suggests growing confidence in the trucking market. However, the index's writers are very clear the upward trends also benefit from an extremely weak market last year. A look back to 2014 figures show expenditures remain well-below the norm, although shipment volumes have held relatively steady.

April's figures are encouraging as they suggest a continued positive trend. But shippers should not raise their expectations yet; while economic growth is occurring, it is still at a relatively slow pace.

Such slow growth remains vulnerable to disruptions in price, which could be led by global events as much as economic trends. As an example, weak rail volumes, which for the most part eventually become truckloads, were led by a decline in oil and coal shipments since 2015. In the latest report, the index's writers call out the auto and housing industries, which "appear to be in the early stages of contraction," as potential drivers of a future downturn.